War Returns to the Continent
Why a Russian invasion of Ukraine is a turning point in European history
February 18 2022
We are most likely hours away from a large-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine. The causes are varied and many. If and when this event occurs, it will be bloody and awful. The worst to suffer will be the civilians of Ukraine as they experience the full might of the Russian military. Ukraine has been fighting a low-level conflict in the eastern provinces since 2014 and its military has grown in confidence and ability due to the fighting there. But the coming onslaught will be something entirely different. The fighting in the Donbas against Russian-backed separatists has been sporadic and largely limited to small-unit actions. Artillery is occasional and heavy equipment is mostly absent. The forces assembled on the northern, eastern, and southern borders of Ukraine are of an entirely different character. The Russian military machine is thoroughly modern and ready for a high-speed offensive designed to destabilize the overmatched Ukrainian forces.
All this is to say that while there have been military actions in Europe since the end of the Second World War, this conflict would be something different in a major way. There has been some fighting in Europe since the end of the Cold War, largely restricted to the Balkans and mostly the result of the disintegration of Yugoslavia. The 2014 annexation of Crimea was a military adventure for Russia but there was no large-scale fighting. The conflict in Donetsk and Luhansk has also been relatively small. The war between Russia and Georgia in 2008 goes a bit more towards the current Ukrainian paradigm. The fight between Moscow and Tbilisi lasted less than a week, involved relatively few military forces, and codified the existing breakaway provinces under Russian control. While designed to prevent Georgia from joining the European Union or NATO, the conflict was far from the power centers of Europe and wasn’t seen as a harbinger of future Russian actions. The fact that Georgian President Saakashvili was seen as erratic and provoking the fight didn’t help.
But the current disposition of Russian military forces seems designed to change the European security architecture. Yes, the Soviet Union invaded Hungary in 1956 and Czechoslovakia in 1968. And, yes, both these actions involved large military forces. But, as distasteful as they were, they were in service to the existing security arrangements of postwar Europe. The challenges the Soviet Union was responding to in 1956 and 1968 were to renegade states, communists that refused to stay true to the Marxist doctrine. The difference in the conflict assembling around Ukraine is in the Russian demands.
The severity of the moment and the incredible change it represents are clear in what Russia is asking for. While assembling its forces on the borders of Ukraine, Russian negotiators are demanding a complete change in the current understanding of European security. They demanded not only a legal guarantee that Ukraine not join NATO but also an end to all military assistance and training in Ukraine. Some might say these demands are sad for Ukraine but an understandable demand given the geography and shared history of Russia and Ukraine. But the last demands are the ones that imply larger problems down the road and a massive change. Russia has demanded a pullback of NATO forces to pre-1997 levels. This includes countries that were not only in the Soviet Union– the Baltic States joined NATO in 2004– but also includes the countries of Poland, Czechia, and Hungary that joined in 1999. Russia is seeking no less than a rollback of 20 years of European integration.
It's unclear if a full scale invasion will be kicked off and even less clear what Russia’s tactical goals are. Will they seize the eastern provinces and declare victory? Will they attack Kyiv, displace the government, and make a deal with a puppet regime? Will they try to occupy and hold the entirety of the country all the way to the Polish border? There are good reasons to believe any of these are likely. What is clear is that Russian demands represent a threat to thirty years of peace in Europe and are an attempt by Vladimir Putin to rewrite the rules of security on the continent.