Russian Su-25t Frogfoot ground attack aircraft
The Russian war in Ukraine is entering a new phase. With the failure of the Russian strategy of a lightning strike to seize Kyiv quickly, there is now a methodical pounding of Ukrainian forces and cities through artillery and airpower. Each day we see more images of destruction of Ukrainian cities, the violence done to ordinary citizens of the embattled country, and witness the flood of refugees west away from the destruction. With so much of this heavy firepower being delivered from the air, its natural for Ukraine’s Western supporters to look for ways to help end the aerial threat. This is where talk of a NFZ comes from. Unfortunately, this is a solution that is both unworkable and extremely dangerous.
American F117 Stealth fighter show down over Bosnia
To hear many proponents talk about it, a No Fly Zone (NFZ) is a magic shield that prevents Russian planes from flying. This is the furthest thing from reality. A No Fly Zone is a declaration that an area must be free from intrusions from a particular country or side in a conflict. In this case, the West and Ukraine would be seeking a NFZ over Ukraine for Russian aircraft. This has been done in the past. The United States declared NFZs in Iraq after the Persian Gulf War and NATO declared ones over Bosnia during the Yugoslav Wars and over Libya during the civil war there.
Kyiv apartment building struck by Russian bombs
The reasons why these NFZs were feasible in comparison to Ukraine today are many. A NFZ requires combat air patrols from the countries declaring the NFZ. An NFZ also means a willingness to engage enemy aircraft that violate the no fly order. An NFZ means that air defense systems will try to engage aircraft trying to enforce an NZF. No Fly Zones over Iraq, Bosnia, and Libya never faced a serious air-to-air threat. The surface to air missile (SAM) defense systems in these countries were rudimentary and not up to modern standards and even given the outdated systems, aircraft enforcing the NFZ were routinely shot at and, occasionally, shot down.
The advanced Russian S-400 air defense missile system
Now compare this to the war in Ukraine. The Russian Air Force is world class. It will not be forced to the ground without a fight. Russian SAM systems, like the S400, are also equal in generation to modern NATO fighter aircraft. This also leads to the probability that aerial combat or missile defense systems will shoot down and kill pilots on both sides. It's impossible to imagine these events not escalating tensions between NATO and Russia.
Anti-war protests growing throughout Russia
To be clear, a No Fly Zone over Ukraine declared by NATO or other outside powers isn’t just an act of war against Russia: it is war. With sanctions devastating the Russian economy, Ukrainian resistance slowing the Russian advance, and domestic protests in Russia ramping up, now is not the time to rally the Russian military and populace into anything that might unify them against NATO. The risk of open combat between NATO and Russia is very high if a No Fly Zone is put in place. Every escalation, including new nuclear threats, cannot be discounted. Russian President Vladimir Putin has declared the war in Ukraine an existential threat to the Russian state. A NATO No Fly Zone risks a highly escalatory situation. Those demanding a No Fly Zone are doing so with the best of intentions, hoping only to allay the suffering of the Ukrainian people. Unfortunately their remedy would likely only exacerbate an already horrendous situation.
No No Fly Zones
Well said. Although well-intentioned, we have no legal or moral authority to escalate the conflict to the level of direct conflict with Russia like we would (and still might in the coming months) to protect a NATO member which Ukraine is not. Doing so, would risk all out WWIII. Far better for Americans to reduce gas/oil use and temporarily accept higher fuel, energy and other affected costs while we isolate Russia and push them down socially and economically to the levels of Iran and North Korea until either Putin comes to his senses or his people get fed up with him and decide to chart a new course.