Belarus is now a full partner in the Russian war against Ukraine. Belarusian territory has been used for missile and airstrikes and as a staging area for Russian invasion forces. There are conflicting reports on whether Belarusian military units are taking part in the fighting on the Russian side, but they are mobilized to intervene. Belarus has become a pliant territory for the use of the Russian military.
Lukashenko briefing the National Security Council March 2022
Belarus had limited statehood prior to the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991. As a founding member of the USSR, Belarus largely existed as a cultural and linguistic expression for most of the preceding 1000 years. The territory that constitutes the current Belarusian state has been controlled by Polish, Lithuanian, and Russian empires. Between World War I and World War II, Belarus was torn between Polish and Soviet authorities. Belarus suffered immensely under Nazi occupation during the war, losing almost 25% of the prewar population. With the German defeat, the borders of modern Belarus were created within the Soviet Union. A very Russified region of the USSR, Belarus became a model part of the communist state. Belarus declared its sovereignty and independence along with the other Soviet republics in 1991, ending the Soviet Union. This marks the best example of independent Belarusian nationhood.
Belarus partisans fought against both Soviet and German occupation in WWII
In elections in 1994, Alexander Lukashenko became president. Lukashenko was a bureaucrat within the Soviet system for much of his life and slowly worked his way up within the local Belarusian communist party. As the leader of Belarus in the post-Soviet period, he was focused mostly on maintaining Soviet systems and institutions. With discussion of a union-state between Belarus and Russia, Lukashenko felt he would be the leader of the united country instead of Russian President Boris Yeltsin. Lukashenko retained strict control of the Belarusian economy and political system. He “won” a series of corrupt elections from the 1990s until 2020 without much fanfare. The United States and Europe have had sanctions on the Lukashenko regime for its political repression and human rights violations.
President Alexander Lukashenko in 2020
In 2020, a prominent human rights activist challenged Lukashenko. Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya made headlines in Belarus and across Europe for challenging Lukashenko’s power and for her stirring rhetoric. She immediately disputed the official results of the election that declared Lukashenko the winner but was forced to go into exile in Lithuania. She refers to herself as the rightful president of Belarus and the European Union and United States does not recognize Lukashenko as the rightful ruler. Protests broke out in Minsk, Hrodna, and other cities of Belarus. The authorities shut down the protests, locking up many and forcing most of society to avoid public displays of displeasure at the Lukashenko regime.
Belarusian citizens protesting the rigged elections of 2020
Lukashenko, as his relationship with the West has declined in recent years, has turned more to Russia and Vladimir Putin for support. Russia has announced permanent military bases on Belarusian territory after years of Lukashenko stating that would never happen. Putin has also used Belarusian territory for his attack on Ukraine. In many ways, Lukashenko retained power in Minsk only to rely even more on Putin and Russia for support. It is hard to consider Belarus totally independent as it has been softly annexed by Russia.
Lukashenko and Putin meeting in Moscow
A Russian presence in Belarus is bad for the Belarusian people and bad for NATO. The national and civic feeling of the Belarusian people, the building of civil society and the flowering of Belarusian literature and culture, is being suppressed in favor of Russian. Belarus decided to host Russian nuclear weapons on its territory, an incredibly provocative act that threatens NATO countries like Poland and Lithuania. Many in Belarus wish to join the West and the European Union but these hopes will be stymied. The Belarusian government has essentially become a combatant on the side of Russia in the war in Ukraine. Western sanctions on Russia have been extended to Belarus, a move designed to punish the Belarusian government but a move that will probably hurt ordinary citizens far more.
Joint Russian-Belarusian-Kazakh military maneuvers
The deterioration of Belarus from an independent state to essentially a province of Russia is one possible outcome that Putin wishes for Ukraine. In that way, Belarus is a cautionary tale. As a nation, Belarusians have a right to self determination and culture but due to geographic proximity and political paranoia they are being denied this. It's to avoid this fate that Ukrainians are fighting and why Europe gives so much support to Kyiv.